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Benchmark's Bill Gurley compares today's markets to 1999 dot-com boom Published Fri, Oct 2 2020 12:39 PM EDT Updated Fri, Oct 2 2020 6:16 PM EDT Jessica Bursztynsky @jbursz GURLEY: Yes. And so, I bought — I bought the Borland stock on the IPO, like the day of the IPO. And then the entire — the entire founding team at Benchmark that brought me on because I wasn’t a founder and taught me everything they knew. RITHOLTZ: So when you do a direct listing, do you still have the rest of the trappings? And I just — it — one of the early people there was the first — Brian Arthur was the first to write about network effects, you know, back in the early 90’s, and that had a big impact. This is way worse than any given year prior in absolute dollars, but it has only been 6 months! You can just …. I’m just the latest person to pick up the baton. With a SPAC the company has much, much more control. GURLEY: Well, I’d say three things about that. So, I ended up getting a job. GURLEY: At one point that year, you know, we were losing market share pretty dramatically. I think at one point in time, you know, I said, I — I’d — I’d be afraid of having money in it in a company that he’s competing with just because I doubt you’re going to work as hard as he is. Benchmark’s Bill Gurley, one of the first people to sound the alarm on excessive risk-taking in private tech investing, sees evidence the rest of the world is waking up. Biden Urged to Stand ‘On the Side of Humanity’ and Back Waiver for Covid Vaccine Patents, Tabula-Rasa Economics in Biden’s Speech to Congress. And — and you show your support for him stating, “There’ll be many pages in the history books devoted to — at Travis K …. Michael Batnick is our Head of Research. He covered Apple when nobody liked Apple. GURLEY: And by the way, that book, you know, was something that Mauboussin read at the time, and — and — and Bill Miller read at the time. Everybody else in the book is — I — I don’t know any of these people, so I can’t say how accurate it is, but everybody comes across as, you know, either a jerk or an egotist or just so sharp-elbowed. Do you think Wells Fargo board would ever teller the management team, “Yeah, we should do that, too.”. A great recruiter was able to bring in a lot of great people fearless like — like he launched the business in China when every — every single founder in the — in the U.S. has been told to give up on China and was able to parlay it into a, you know, pretty big ownership position in B.D., which Hoover still has today. And our final question, what do you know about the world of venture capital and technology today that you wish you knew when you were starting out at Benchmark back in 1999? Do they understand your story better than most? Those numbers have gotten insane recently. We’re still close friends today, and he’s a large investor in Benchmark. And so, you know, he, fortunately, passed. How difficult of a role does that put you in where you’re both an investor into the company, but a cheerleader and so one of the founders and the CEO? GURLEY: This is a really hard question, and the reason it’s really hard is because that all of my initial answers that I want to give you, Barry, really violates the premise of the question because I could say, well, I should’ve invested in Google, right, or, you know, hold Amazon forever, but — but those things are just hindsight (inaudible) …. GURLEY: You know, I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately just because I — I’ve been running some numbers on the PCR testing in — in the U.S., which are mind-numbing. GURLEY: … you skipped about four years so — which is fine. A lot of — a lot of VCs had a very special weapon over the years a gentleman named Bill Campbell that you may have heard about from time to time …. And when a SPAC is nearing its termination date, those Sponsor’s should be expected to be extremely flexible (if they don’t close a deal they will soon lose their initial capital commitment). 321 likes. And, you know, prior to OpenTable, you couldn’t say, oh — oh, well, I need a table for six and would love Chinese in San Francisco on Saturday, and then immediately get a response. You’ve written about the role tech could play in transforming healthcare. There’s no doubt. I’m going to see all those through. And even between the banks, there’s this thing called “jump ball economics,” where your bank was encouraged to outperform the other bank. And so, I was — I — I had left the equity research business by the time stuffs started going really crazy — in — in — in ’99. As we find new doors to the public market that have truer/fairer pricing, you will see an increased willingness to participate. So — so that kind of thing was already happening in my brain. But there are different types of analysis tools that you could run either virtually in the background or, you know, and we plug this thing called an ICE (ph), which is a Medusa head-like thing on top of the processor where you can measure every pin. GURLEY: But that’s probably not fair to the Oscar (ph). RITHOLTZ: So when you’re involved in both hardware and software — we’re talking 30 plus years ago — how magical did the software look? The por-trait of Joe Hill (right) hung there for many years. I’m going to do whatever I want. "Shamrock," the dog, is in the driver's seat, and an unidentified little pet pig … And so he was uncomfortable doing the road show because he wanted the retail investors to not be at a disadvantage to the institutional investors. The PIPE has risks. It’s — it’s on the back of like six years of massive amounts of capital availability. Give us your favorite Netflix or Amazon Prime or — or podcast you’re listening to. So, the froth sounds like it’s similar to the 90’s, but the underlying conditions of zero percent interest rate, lots of capital, but also lots of companies with big revenue and — and taking market share or just developing brand new markets, that seems a little more advanced, a little more sophisticated than what was being thrown up against the wall in the 90’s. It has to do with the trends in how much effort the investment banks put into marketing and distribution, versus how much effort they put in historically. Mike hands me a — a book called “Valuation” that McKinsey had written and another one by Stern Stewart all about return on invested capital, which he’s using in the food space. Most of them have pretty significant revenue run rates. Daniel Ek interestingly at — at Spotify felt strongly that he felt — and this tied to open access — he wanted every investor to have the exact same information. GURLEY: Yeah, there’s one thing about that letter I’d love to — to make a point about just in case. RITHOLTZ: Bill, what do you think is more important, having a strong revenue ramp for an early company or profitability? On the IPO process the underwriters are agents for both the company and the buyside (the shareholders who are allocated shares). And — and I would say, you know, that’s not optimal like — like in — in — in the — in the perfect scenario, you know, you have something like — like Bezos in Amazon where the founder is able to — to rise and scale and — and do extremely well into the public markets and beyond, but it don’t always work out that way. You know, I think, you know, so for better or for worse, some people get started on companies. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. But I think it’s an area that bends to youth and bends to hustle. Most investors have little to no shot of getting an IPO allocation. We have been speaking with Bill Gurley. GURLEY: Yes. William has resided in Waxahachie, TX in a single family house with Derek. If that’s above the opening price, you get it filled, right? You fly Chicago for a day, you’d spend as much on the black car that — that you rode around in all days you did the flight. And, you know, I went to Texas. Speech Transcript Thanks for having me. GURLEY: And, you know, Al just felt like taking a bet on me. So, I — in my third year as an analyst at CSFB, I was about to — I was about to jump ship and go to the buy-side. So, the — they used to use this word “distribution.” I’m looking to get this offering out and got to go sell it, right? And the — the people that are doing the hardware design work didn’t have enough understanding of how the software work to kind of reverse engineer the failure, and so we kind of lived in between these two groups. I think — I think, you know, Netflix did it also, right, where everyone sitting there going, but you don’t make money, but you don’t make money and read — got Wall Street to believe in what he was doing, which I think is a critical part of this, and then was allowed to lose way more money than any of the production companies that he was ultimately competing with and took massive share. There were — there was all kind of — of ugliness around people that have tried to sell technology to them before. Every morning, you know, you got to start trading a stock. GURLEY: And it — it — it — it did makes for a wild ride. RITHOLTZ: Oh, I know Charlie Wolf very well. And — and I, you know, and — and after that, some of — some of the most touching moments, you know, I — I’ve been out in a restaurant in San Francisco where a random employee will come to me and say, “Hey, thank you — thank you for what you guys did. So, you’re — you’re — there’s a very restricted set of people who get to decide if they, you know, get — if they want to buy stock in (inaudible). Have you read it? And so, I just started proactively meeting with companies. On an IPO, these commissioned sales executives would “hit the phones” to help make a deal successful (earning commission for each placement). GURLEY: … spectacular. I — I — to this day it’s one of my favorite trivia questions who was lead left on the Amazon IPO because not many people will be able to say Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, but — but there — there is a photo of it on the Internet if you do a search. It’s really an analysis of multi-variable nonlinear systems and how they behave. SPACS are a much faster way to become a public company. It’s just fantastic. And — and it — it — it can cause a lot of anxiety for someone who was brought up rooted in financial history and, you know, someone who’s — who felt like a study partner of Mike Mauboussin like it’s — it’s hard when you see craziness. Clever, exciting, and valuable to our entire industry. You don’t …. And I think when I got to business school and started really understanding, you know, different companies, and reading about companies, and — and that fun that I was having, thinking about stocks and stock prices, I — when I — when I really started reading, you know, magazines, “Wall Street Journal,” “Fortune,” I noticed that these analysts were quoted a lot, especially Goldman had this killer team with Dan Benton, Ric Sherland (ph), you know, and they — they owned it, like every — like the top five tech analyst at Goldman were all — all considered to be the accent. In this particular case, you know, it’s well-known that became — they got — they got increasingly difficult. But it was fun because it was, you know, shortened scope. You will be able to discern this in meetings. So, I think that’s interesting how that’s evolved. The Ancient Roots of “Doing Nothing”: Is Idleness a Form Of Resistance — Or Just an Indulgence for the Lucky Few? RITHOLTZ: Right, a giant. And so, no one — you know, no one is going to complain about it at a carrier or at a health care provider. In a traditional IPO, the difference between the IPO price and the so-called first-day pop is pocketed by the buy-side investors in what Gurley has referred to … He’s really the only good guy in the book. It turns out he’s the lead analyst on the Amazon IPO to eventually becoming a — a V.C. So, I think I mentioned them all, but Charlie Wolf and Mike Mauboussin at — at CSFB unquestionably had a huge massive impact on my career direction. It’d usually be like one day to a week before we’d figured out. And so I met with Frank. Mark Howe, representing Michigan Department of Education, testified in opposition to the bill. RITHOLTZ: So you’re not an especially big fan of initial public offerings. They’re going to be conservative. It just invites more players in the mix, and therefore raises both the time to completion and the risk of completion. You are told that you actually need 30X more orders than you actually plan to sell. They execute a road-show (in Covid we have proven this can all be done successfully online). First, there have been a record number of SPACs raised, and at a much higher capital raise per SPAC. There was exactly what we are talking about internally, and so we smothered. And every single stock these days, every day when it opens, goes through that process, right? I ended up — I ended up leaving Compaq and going to business school before I transitioned into Wall Street. And one of the ones I bought — you know, if you read — read that Peter Lynch book, was it “One Up on Wall Street,” was that …. Why would they give them to anybody else? But the other thing was they thought yet that the in-person roadshow was — was tremendously important, and you can only do that with an IPO. You know, you would — you’d spend as much on a business trip. And they are the exact process and systems used to open a stock the next morning after the hand-priced, hand-allocated traditional IPO. GURLEY: Well, somewhere along the way while I was — had become an engineer and was working at Compaq, I started trading stocks and I can’t remember exactly how I fell into it. There’s — there’s no high dollar transaction that you’ll do in your life, Barry, where you use the same agent as the counterpart. He is also the author of the popular blog Above the Crowd. Most of the world had barely heard of Silicon Valley when he … But we — we made this bet that if you could get this flywheel moving that connecting all of the world’s restaurants would create a very special experience for the consumer. And most of the time, they’re just sitting there. Prior to Benchmark, Bill was a partner with Hummer Winblad Venture Partners. SPACs have a much lower cost of capital versus a standard IPO. It’s those kinds of things I think about in — in retrospect. But — but all the obfuscation makes it easier for the people that are in the system. So — so, first of all, because they were trying to do it in a — in a innovative manner it was bespoke. What are some of your favorites and what are you reading right now? I — I’d — I’d probably — if people are thinking about this, I’d go back to an — an old one that I just adore in case because I don’t think everyone’s watched this, but Justified has some of the best writing that I’ve ever seen. I chose not to read it just because I didn’t necessarily want to live it again. And the book is an amazing, amazing story about Uber, which in and of itself is — is just madness. Some companies are even running a process to meet with multiple SPACs — which is being called a SPAC-off. Who would you give it to if you were in charge? He is a celebrity investor. And then there’s this — there’s this other esoteric corner of the whole thing that’s super interesting, which is once people get comfortable using capital as a weapon, all the sudden, the private companies are the ones that are being provocateurs with more money against the public incumbents. There’s just no reason why anybody is running a business has to also be running a small medical practice on the side. GURLEY: But I didn’t — so — I — it’s kind of interesting because it involves someone I know — I know you — you think quite highly of. Talk to any management team from any IPO in the past three years, and you will find they had this exact conversation. It is hard to imagine how anyone can suggest this is a good idea with a straight face. Let’s start with your early career. What — what intrigued you? In real estate, dual agency is frowned upon for obvious reasons — “At best, they say, dual agents can’t fulfill their fiduciary obligations to both parties. And the total dollars of one-day wealth transfer in just 6 months of 2020 was $7.8B. You know, I have no idea how they do this today because the clock speeds are so dramatically faster. And Commissioner Clayton and his last act, I think, two days before he stepped away as chairman of the SEC pushed that through. And somehow, we won the mandate. GURLEY: And — and — and all the journalists I’ve met in my entire life, you know, so you have to read this, you have to read this, you have to read this. How — how was your perspective changed since — since you stepped down in 2017? So, if you are all remotely interested in venture capital investing, technology, direct listings, replacing IPOs, I think you’re going to find this conversation to be absolutely fascinating. And so, I think Morgan Stanley hired like 200 engineers to build the system, and it was a one-off. We actually met with them before the seed round. Uber's sold off its self-driving unit in late 2020 as it grappled with a revenue downturn. RITHOLTZ: So, I know you are stepping back a bit from Benchmark, you’re not participating in the next fund they’re raising. GURLEY: If you have a good idea, let me know. You are told the “optimal” target is to be 30X over-subscribed. 109 East Street Road, Ohio, USA. Write to us at [email protected] Give us a review on Apple iTunes. And then the second thing is they don’t use price just — they — they don’t use supply and demand to set the price and determine who gets the shares. I fully expect to see high profile companies walk through Door #3. There are two-fatal flaws to the traditional IPO process that are both addressed with Direct Listings. There are so many SPACs that companies that want to use Door #3 can and should actively negotiate not just price, but also what % the Sponsor shares should be (while these have traditionally been 20%, Ackman took Sponsor shares all the way down to 0%!) Well, I was doing a ton of programming in Borland — Borland Turbo Pascal. And if so, how actively? The answer to this question is “potentially.” There are three factors to consider when choosing a Sponsor. What a rock star. Your email address will not be published. You have to meet with Frank.”. I will first walk through some important key points to think about with respect to SPACs in 2020, and then give you several reasons why they are a legitimate, timely, and cost effective way to enter the public markets. Nothing is wrong with AngelList. Where was it? And back then, you know, I think the last thing I worked on was a 4650. RITHOLTZ: … well, if you’re looking for a side gig in New York, there’s always a desk in my office for you. There — there literally isn’t — you wouldn’t do that M&A transaction. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s talk about an alternative like direct listings. In — in a world — in a world that’s bubbly, you know, the things that are rewarded are being more speculative. The more of the IPO shares you were able to place the higher economics your bank would earn on an IPO. And — and if you have, is it remotely accurate? Smart. Standing is "Maw" (Tran) Gurley, and Olive Smith, who later married "Uncle" Bill Gurley. The second key thing to understand is that this abundant supply of SPACs (arguably an over supply) is leading to competition. Launched with what Bill Gurley, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist and early Tropos investor, calls "four guys under 30 and an algorithm," the Sunnyvale-based company spent less … from the beginning. So when would you not use a Direct Listing? Bill Gurley, partner at Benchmark Capital, leveled a number of serious charges at a ballroom full of New Yorkers this week–the city has yet to produce an iconic venture-backed company, he said.And, he added, people here are more likely to sell early rather than create a true home-run for a venture firm via an IPO. The company runs a competitive bake-off to pick the underwriters. There were eyeballs, there were clicks. The IWW headquarters in Chicago in 1946. Bill Miller is like the chair emeritus there now, and Mike is the chair at Santa Fe. RITHOLTZ: So, no doubt that finances is going to go through some changes. That money would have been better spend on food delivery, he told journalist Eric Newcomer. All projects; Maintenance, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction: Industrial-Chemical Factory Prahovo And, you know, when you talk to whether it’s someone like Buffett or Druckenmiller or — or Howard Marks, these people that follow macro way more than any venture capitalist would, they know that when interest rates go to near zero speculation abounds. We found 19 records in 19 states for Debra Gurley in the US. And — and Slack then decided that, in addition to the investor day, they wanted to do the standard roadshow, and that was — that was available. As Michael Moritz noted in the Financial Times, “…the choice of a direct listing or a traditional IPO has become a test of two attributes: courage and intelligence.”. RITHOLTZ: You know, I — I think he’s right. How do you put evaluation on — on a — a relatively young startup? And it is increasingly hard to understand how a board of directors can legitimately exercise their fiduciary duty, while subjecting the company to such a strucurally backwards approach. I’ve been spending a lot of time talking to a lot of people who have kind of done V2 of themselves. RITHOLTZ: I was going to say, no, don’t make me call Mike Mauboussin on you. What are you going to do now? What was — what was fun about it is that, you know, often times they were holding up shipping until we could get our job done. You know, the — the — I — I do think that all of it makes sense when you realize that the key customer of the investment bank is the institutional shareholder firm. You’re the only guy in the whole book who comes out with your reputation intact. VOICE-OVER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. That’s exactly how every stocks opened every day on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. 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